“we are actually narrowing the window and also increasing the window of our expectation to EUR 36 billion to EUR 40 billion for this year”

Watch whether the non-EUV demand acceleration — particularly immersion and dry — sustains into 2027 guidance, which would signal a broader semiconductor capex upcycle beyond AI.

“within the guidance that we provided, the EUR 36 billion to EUR 40 billion, we believe we can accommodate potential outcomes of the export control discussions that are currently ongoing”

Watch for any new export control announcements targeting China or other markets, as the degree to which they exceed ASML's embedded assumptions could pressure the lower end of guidance.

“we expect that we're able to get to an output for 2027. Again, if customer demand really underpins that, we think that we can get to at least 80 Low NA EUV units”

What management said

·ASML expects to scale EUV Low NA output to at least 80 units in 2027, a 33%+ increase from 2026, conditional on customer demand.

↑ASML targets at least 60 Low NA EUV system output for 2026, defining the near-term supply ceiling for EUV lithography equipment.

↑ASML reports that memory customers are fully sold out for 2026 with supply constraints extending beyond 2026, indicating severe DRAM/HBM allocation tightness.

↑ASML's CEO states that semiconductor supply will not meet demand for the foreseeable future, creating constraints across AI, mobile, and PC end markets.

↑ASML reports that DRAM and logic customers are publicly validating High NA EUV's ability to reduce EUV mask count from 3 to 1, with customers beginning to test on real products, indicating progression toward qualification.

↓ASML increased NXE:3800E throughput by ~5% (220→230 wph), effectively adding EUV capacity without new tool shipments through productivity gains on the installed base.

↑Deep UV immersion demand has reversed from expected decline to growth, indicating broader lithography tightness beyond EUV as customers expand capacity across multiple nodes.

↑ASML raised and narrowed its 2026 revenue guidance to €36-40 billion, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand across EUV and non-EUV business lines.