AMD's Meta deal locks in six gigawatts of compute demand but introduces equity dilution risk that could reshape operator margins over two quarters. H100 spot pricing holds flat at $4.09/hr while memory constraint tightens to 71% HBM utilization. Power costs at $64/MWh remain loose. The warrant conversion math matters more than the chip supply certainty right now.
Gemini 3.1 Pro's 50% price advantage and doubled reasoning capability will force model builders to recalibrate within 90 days. Claude Opus 4.6 launch compounds this pressure while IP theft allegations are surfacing training data provenance as a material compliance cost. The code gap widens to 108 points—frontier models are diverging on reasoning, not closing.
I'd watch the decentralized infrastructure narrative climbing to 91/100 strength. Capital is rotating away from cloud incumbents toward edge silicon optimized for agents. Robotics deployment velocity (44 units in 30 days) is real, and the multiagent code generation shift (now 61/100) suggests domain-specific stacks will outcompete monolithic reasoning. This reshapes hardware demand faster than supply contracts can absorb.