Tesla isn't leaving TSMC. Tesla's AI5 chip is currently manufactured by TSMC Evxl, and the company signed a $16.5 billion deal with Samsung in July 2025 to produce AI6 chips through December 2033
It's deepening its foundry dependency while staging a long-term narrative. Terafab at 2nm is something TSMC itself spent decades and over $165 billion to achieve. The idea that Tesla replicates this on Musk's timeline is almost preposterous
The LNG risk is a different story, and it's real. Taiwan has only 11 days of natural gas reserves, and Qatar accounts for around a third of its LNG imports Atlantic Council. Taiwan has secured supply through April, but the danger window is summer, when electricity demand can surge 40% above winter levels. If Hormuz stays closed into July, competition from Japan and Korea for replacement LNG could create real allocation pressure. That's the NVIDIA supply risk worth watching - Not Terafab. But the Strait of Hormuz.