MAIN THESISmemoryCALLED May 3, 2026RESOLVES Nov 1, 2026
openHBM stays bound through 2026 Q4. All three majors are sold out.
Read the full thesis →000660.KSSK Hynix
OWN
Structural leader
Primary HBM exposure. NVIDIA HBM4 incumbent, 2026 supply largely allocated.
MUMicron
OWN
Catalyst into June 23 print
HBM4 12-Hi shipped to NVIDIA Vera Rubin. CY26 HBM supply contracted on price + volume.
005930.KSSamsung Electronics
WATCH
Corrective expression
HBM4 commercial ramp underway. Tier 1 NVIDIA supplier per SemiAnalysis Q1 2026 model.
WE ARE WATCHING
Resolved RIGHT if HBM average selling price rises or stays flat quarter-over-quarter through 2026 Q4 at all three majors (SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung).
Resolved WRONG if HBM ASPs print flat or negative QoQ for two consecutive quarters at any of the three majors before 2026-11-01.
Resolution evidence: quarterly earnings disclosures from SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung.
Show full pass / fail contract
The HBM constraint has not loosened. In their three most recent earnings calls, SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung all disclosed that their entire 2026 HBM capacity is committed.
SK Hynix says customers are "prioritizing securing volume over pricing." Micron has "completed agreements on price and volume for our entire calendar 2026 HBM supply, including Micron's industry-leading HBM4." Samsung's HBM4 capacity is "fully booked and sold out."
The demand pulling on this is 17 active HBM-critical silicon programs in our tracker (NVIDIA, AMD, AWS, Google, Microsoft) across 11 shipping designs and 6 in early production. Aggregate three-supplier HBM capacity remains under aggregate demand through 2026 Q4.
Tickers: 000660.KS, MU, 005930.KS