IF PASS: cot_intel.beliefs direction for belief_key='constraint:nand' remains 'tightening' across every evaluable day in the 20-day window from 2026-04-28 to 2026-05-18. Cross-tier memory tightness holds — broad memory suppliers (000660.KS overweight, MU overweight, 005930.KS neutral, SNDK neutral, WDC neutral) maintain pricing leverage. IF FAIL: constraint:nand flips to 'easing' on any day in the window. Cross-tier synchronization breaks — the broad memory_suppliers basket loses its compositional edge over a narrower hbm_leaders pair (000660.KS, MU only), reverting to a story already captured by MRS>70 alone. Tickers: 000660.KS, MU, 005930.KS, SNDK, WDC

IF PASS: SK Hynix sustains HBM-led average-selling-price (ASP) strength and captures the highest-quality NVIDIA HBM4 allocation as supply-demand imbalance persists. SK Hynix's CFO Kim Woo Hyun confirmed on April 23 that customers are 'prioritizing securing volume,' and Q1's mid-60% DRAM ASP uplift supports durable pricing power if HBM mix is the driver. Micron ships HBM4 volume into Vera Rubin but without enough evidence of SK Hynix-like pricing, yield, or margin contribution. Samsung improves HBM4 positioning but customer confidence remains constrained by its HBM3E qualification history. IF FAIL: Micron converts early HBM4 volume shipments into visible margin gains and expanding NVIDIA allocation share, compressing SK Hynix's scarcity premium (the price uplift suppliers earn when supply is tight). Samsung shows credible HBM4 customer traction and reduces its pricing discount. SK Hynix retains a manufacturing lead but loses pricing exclusivity as ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet noted on April 15 that memory customers are 'sold out for 2026' — a tide that lifts all three suppliers, narrowing the margin gap. Tickers: 000660.KS, 005930.KS, MU

IF PASS (call confirms): non-GAAP gross margin prints below 73% on the 2026-05-20 release, OR Q2 FY27 revenue guide lands below $80B with management citing H20 exclusion and no offsetting catalyst. Either condition alone resolves as confirms. IF FAIL (call wrong): non-GAAP GM prints at 75% or higher AND Q2 FY27 guide lands above $84B AND H20 headwind is either absorbed or offset by sovereign AI demand. All three conditions required. The 73-74% GM band with no clear guide direction resolves as directional/partial — guide reading becomes the tiebreaker. MIXED falsifier logic — confirms is OR-shaped, breaks is AND-shaped. This is a band call on margin durability and forward visibility, not a directional stock-price bet. Tickers: NVDA